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Welcome back to Political Misfits on Radio Sputnik, where we bring you news, politics and culture - without the red and blue treatment. I am John Kiriakou here with Michelle Witte.
Tensions in the Middle East worsened seriously over the weekend. A number of Iranian-made rockets, apparently fired by Hezbollah, landed on a soccer field in a village in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 people, many of them children. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had cut a few hours off his US visit to return home to deal with the situation, said that Israel would respond with a harshness that Hezbollah has never before seen. Hezbollah at first said that it was not responsible for the attack, which comes after months of skirmishes with the Israelis, but Hezbollah is the only entity in the region that has that model of Iranian rocket used in the attack. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said that his government is so weak that it has no control over Hezbollah and that Beirut is unable to do anything that might head off a war. //. On Sunday, Israeli forces bombed a Palestinian school in Gaza, killing 19 people, including a number of children. The bombing took place at the same time that officials from Israel, Hamas, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt were meeting in Rome to work toward a ceasefire. A US official said afterward, however, that the Israelis have no viable plan for a ceasefire and that Netanyahu, when he was in Washington, did not even pretend to have a workable proposal for one.
We're joined by foreign affairs and security analyst Mark Sleboda.
Questions:
1. Thanks for joining us, Mark. Let's start with the multiple attacks over the weekend. A lot of innocent people lost their lives. It seems that most of the victims in the Golan Heights were Druze, who have refused over the course of decades to accept Israeli citizenship. They generally consider themselves to be either Syrian or Lebanese, even if they are not mainstream Muslims and live in occupied territory. And in Gaza, most of the victims were children who died in one of many, many Israeli attacks on civilian targets. There have been tit-for-tat attacks in the north for many months. Are we at the breaking point now? Should we expect to see an actual conflict begin between Israel and Hezbollah?
2. Talk a little about the Lebanese government. It's been a weak government for decades. The country has one of the worst economies in the world. And now the Prime Minister is stating the obvious by saying that he has no control over Hezbollah. That's absolutely true. But in the end, if there is a conflict, Lebanese civilians are going to be the hardest hit. Is there time to head off a war? Is there anything that the Lebanese government can do?
3. What is the state of play in Gaza right now? The last time we addressed the issue, last Wednesday, there was no reason to be optimistic. The Israelis had told refugees to take a certain route to evacuate an area, and then they bombed the route, killing dozens. This weekend, yet again, they hit a school and then, just like they always do, they said "oops. Sorry. We'll investigate." I'm actually having trouble understanding how there can be any Hamas presence of any import left in Gaza at all. It looks like the Israelis are just trying to kill as many people as possible. What am I missing?
4. US officials in Washington and US diplomats in Rome said over the weekend that Benjamin Netanyahu went to Washington with no viable ceasefire plan, he did not offer any workable ceasefire plan, and he did not authorize Israeli diplomats to negotiate a ceasefire plan in good faith. In the meantime, many of the families of hostages who happen to be dual Israeli/US citizens, protested Netanyahu's visit, demanding that he do something to get their family members released. But I would posit that, politically, Netanyahu doesn't want the hostages to be released. Because that's when the conflict would begin to wind down, his government may collapse, and those pesky felony charges might rear their ugly heads again. Is that what this is about--prolonging the war as long as possible to save Netanyahu's political hide?
5. Prediction time, Mark. In the next couple of weeks, should we expect to see a hotter war against Hezbollah and perhaps a reallocation of Israeli troops out of Gaza and up to the north?
Mali/Wagner ambush/Ukraine GRU supplied info?
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On Thursday, Italy’s foreign minister said Rome would be sending an ambassador back to Syria for the first time in a decade. AP tells me this could “spark divisions” among EU allies. Italy says it doesn’t want Russia to have a monopoly on diplomatic efforts in Syria and that EU policy toward Syria should adapt to “the development of the situation.” Seems sensible. Is this going to be an earthquake for the EU? For Washington?
Italy restores relations with Syria, building relationships with China
Israel strikes deep in Lebanon after rocket attack, stoking fear of wider war
Negotiators Meet to Revive Push for Hostage Release and Cease-Fire in Gaza - The New York Times
Israel Approves a Retaliatory Strike on Hezbollah - WSJ
Israeli attacks kill at least 19 Palestinians, including children, across Gaza | CNN
The Israel-Hezbollah war that no one wants could finally blow up | CNN
Biden admin openly hammering Israel’s military strategy in Gaza - POLITICO
Lebanese premier hopeful of resolving Israel-Hezbollah conflict diplomatically (aa.com.tr)
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