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Welcome back to Political Misfits on Radio Sputnik, where we bring you news, politics and culture - without the red and blue treatment. I’m John Kiriakou here with Michelle Witte.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is in Kiev today for meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It is Orban’s first visit to Ukraine since the start of hostilities. Orban is an outspoken critic of western military and financial aid for Ukraine, and the visit comes just one day after Hungary assumed the rotating presidency of the European Union. Orban’s spokesman said that the visit will focus on “achieving peace in the region,” but it is unlikely that the Hungarians have any peace proposals that have been vetted and agreed to by any other country or organization. In the meantime, Orban has taunted his domestic and foreign critics this week, using the slogan “Make Europe Great Again” to suggest that Hungary plans a push to the right during its presidency. He added on X, formerly known as Twitter, “National conservative, sovereignist, and Christian forces are on the rise all over Europe. We are the worst nightmare of the Brussels bureaucrats. #MakeEuropeGreatAgain.” // It’s a very busy week in France, where President Emmanuel Macron is trying to salvage whatever he can from his presidency in the aftermath of a right-wing surge at the polls. The National Rally Party of Marine Le Pen won a plurality of the votes over the weekend, and the country will see hundreds of runoff elections next weekend to determine who will form a government. Marcon is meeting with the leaders of leftist and center-left parties to try to decide who should drop out and who should remain in what races to improve the chances of defeating National Rally candidates. But public opinion polls show that the right will likely win. // Iran will hold a runoff on Friday to elect a new president. That race is between hardliner Saeed Jalili and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian finished with 42 percent of the vote to Jalili’s 39 percent, but the two other candidates in the first round also were hardliners who had likely split the conservative vote. // And the Israeli government is ordering Palestinians to evacuate the Gaza city of Khan Younis in advance of yet another Israeli military offensive. The order comes just hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview that the end of the war is only weeks away. With that said (disingenuously, I might add), Netanyahu did not comment on the worsening of the security situation between Israeli and Hezbollah.
We’re joined by foreign affairs and security analyst Mark Sleboda.
Questions:
Thanks for joining us, Mark. Welcome back. Let’s start with Viktor Orban’s visit to Ukraine. It comes only one day after the start of Hungary’s six-month rotation as president of the European Union. What, if anything, is Orban hoping to accomplish on this trip? He’s known to have had difficult ties to Zelensky. Should we expect to see any kind of progress?
Orban has been vocal in his opposition to western military and financial aid to Ukraine, and, indeed, claims that he extracted a promise from Mark Rutte, the new Secretary General of NATO to not approve any additional NATO aid without Hungarian acquiescence. Do you expect that position to change in any way?
Orban’s Foreign Minister has made five trips to Russia in the past 28 months. Is it possible that the Hungarians could be the peacebrokers in this conflict? Do you think Orban sees himself in that role?
Meanwhile, Ukraine's Defence Minister Rustem Umerov will hold talks with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Washington on Tuesday on “firming up military cooperation between the two countries,” as Reuters put it. What will they be getting into? Ukraine is asking for more weapons. Does the US have them to supply?
Turning to France, the right is ascendant and the left is descendant. That seems pretty clear since the weekend. Is it possible for Macron and the left to eke out a win this week and to be able to form a government? Or have the voters essentially spoken already, in favor of the National Rally Party?
I mentioned yesterday on the show that so many analysts panicked last year at the thought of Georgia Meloni becoming Prime Minister of Italy. Many predicted the worst, especially in terms of immigration. But in fact, she’s had a successful run so far. Do you think the west might be underestimating LePen? Or is she as dangerous as many pundits want us to believe?
In the meantime, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been meeting with Polish President Donald Tusk today, and Scholz was expected to announce financial support for surviving Polish victims of Nazi crimes … but no such announcement was made, beyond a very vague promise to “endeavor to provide support” for such victims. The anticipated package was supposed to help mend ties between Germany and Poland. Is it significant that the two countries at the last minute weren’t able to come to an agreement?
Mark, I’d like to get your thoughts on the Iranian presidential runoff that will take place on Friday. There’s been very little coverage in the western media, and I’m wondering if the west doesn’t care who wins this election because policy toward Iran isn’t going to change. Is that what this is all about? Just a continuation of crippling sanctions?
Pezeshkian is known as a supporter of direct talks with the United States. Even if he wins, is that a realistic position? Will the ayatollahs allow a resumption of talks? Or will the White House?
Regardless of who wins, should we expect to see any changes in Iranian foreign policy?
And finally, Mark, can you give us an update on operations in Gaza? The Palestinians are clear that this is an unmitigated humanitarian disaster. Of that we’re certain. The Israelis, though, are sending mixed messages. On the one hand, Netanyahu says that the war is almost over. On the other, the Israelis are beginning a new offensive against Khan Younis. What are we looking at here?
The NYT is reporting today, citing interviews with six Israeli generals, that the Israeli military is low on munitions and wants a ceasefire in Gaza, even if that means leaving without “destroying Hamas.” The Times sources say the military is low on equipment, low on energy and keen to at least delay a war with Hezbollah until they’re in better shape, and they think a truce in Gaza will deescalate things on their northern border as well. I also don’t know how forthcoming the Israeli military has been about the impact of its personnel losses as well. Now … I guess this could be a roundabout way of suggesting the US is holding Israel back by not sending them more munitions. What do you think is going on here?
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-poland-fail-agree-compensation-for-survivor-of-nazi-crimes-olof-scholz-donald-tusk/With 'Make Europe Great Again,' Hungary taunts allies, touts hard right
As Macron fades and far right surges, French left senses opportunity
The Center Collapses in France, Leaving Macron Marooned - The New York Times
Macron is already over. Can anyone stop Le Pen?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/1/will-irans-foreign-policy-change-under-a-new-president
Israel risking disastrous war against Hezbollah for political reasons, says former US official
Israeli Generals, Low on Munitions, Want a Truce in Gaza - The New York Times
Orban in Ukraine, Center Right & Left Political Parties Collapse in France, Elections in Iran, Simmering Israel Lashing Out More & More...