Welcome back to Political Misfits on Radio Sputnik, where we bring you news, politics and culture - without the red and blue treatment. I’m John Kiriakou here with Michelle Witte.
International affairs and security analyst Mark Sleboda.
I really want to get your thoughts on this foreign policy on these talks between Russia and Ukraine in early 2022 that, according to the article, had the potential to end the conflict almost as soon as it began, and might still provide some insights into how it could end. And I know, I know, you’ve said for some time that this will end militarily, not diplomatically. But I want to talk a little bit about what supposedly upended these talks and what the sides were willing to agree upon.
So. In a nutshell, the story holds that in late March 2022, the two negotiating teams arrived at a joint communique outlining conditions for ending the war. Ukraine would become a permanently neutral, nonnuclear state. Ukraine would renounce any intention to join military alliances or allow foreign military bases or troops on its soil. Guarantors were proposed for its security, and those guarantors would be obliged to provide assistance to Ukraine if requested. There was a 15-year timeline set for resolving the “dispute” over Crimea, and Kiev could continue toward EU membership with Russia’s support. Later, provisions were added to a draft treaty about Ukraine having to ban certain political ideologies - part of the goal of denazification. The story notes that some of these positions seem really antithetical to the states’ prior positions. According to this story, Russia was willing to make concessions because the war was going badly for Moscow, and Ukraine still wanted to avoid a prolonged conflict.
So, what happened? According to the story, Ukraine’s Western backers were at best lukewarm on the idea of a truce, and that Boris Johnson of the UK in particular was against it. But also according to the story, by the end of April 2022, Ukraine thought they could win the war, and were infuriated by what they found in cities Russia had withdrawn from, namely Bucha - and we’ve talked a lot about how those atrocities were presented.
So. I have my doubts about some of this, but I’m also curious about how close Russia and Ukraine ever might have been to finding an off ramp for this conflict. And to me, this hinges on what this war is actually about and how it has actually played out on the ground. I find it a little hard to believe that even from the beginning Ukraine thought they could win, but maybe I’m wrong.
Let’s start with the content of these communiques and draft treaties the article presents. Do you see anything plausible there, or any absolute dealbreakers?
The story goes that Ukraine became less motivated to make a deal because of how the early months of the war played out. I have a couple of questions here. One, with a couple of years of hindsight, what do you think happened? Did Russia try to take Kiev and fumble, which is the generally accepted wisdom? Did Russia employ a tactic other analysts say it has employed before - to feint toward an objective and withdraw? Of course in the West we had the ghost of Kiev, the grandmas with sunflower seeds, we had a lot of rah-rah, Ukraine’s victory will be swift, but for the Ukrainian commanders actually fighting the war - did they truly believe that as well?
[If Russia did feint toward Kiev and withdraw as a tactic - did it end up backfiring on them, if that truly made Kiev think they could win?]
What was the real role of the West here, do you think?
In the last couple of days, multiple outlets have run headlines saying outright “Ukraine is losing” - because the US hasn’t sent more aid. I know you’ve said you expect this war to go on for a long time. What does it look like if Ukraine fights on without a big infusion of aid soon?
The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs
Denys Kireyev was a Ukrainian spy hailed as a hero who saved Kyiv from Russian invaders. So why was he killed for treason? - ABC News
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-sbu-responsible-killing-banker-russian-intelligence/32235780.html
RFE/RL – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (Author): “Ukraine's SBU Responsible For Killing Of Banker Who Was Conduit For Russian Intelligence, Says Intel Chief ”, Document #2085813 - ecoi.net
No the Kiev Regime Was Not Seriously Considering A Negotiated Peace Settlement with Russia in Early 2022. They Were Just Playing for Time. Again...