How Erdogan is Fueling the Ukraine Conflict, More "Russian Nuke" Scares in Western MSM, Biden's "War Smack" SOTU Bluster, the Orgiastic Feedback Look of MSM Propaganda & Bad Russia Analysis, more...

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Welcome back to Political Misfits on Radio Sputnik, where we bring you news, politics and culture - without the red and blue treatment. I am John Kiriakou here with Michelle Witte.

We’ve learned that President Putin will travel to Turkey next month for talks with Turkish President Erdogan.  But perhaps even more interesting is news that Turkey’s Foreign Minister was in Washington last week and the Director of the Turkish Intelligence Service is in Washington today.  Greek Prime Minister Constantine Mitsotakis will travel to Ankara at around the same time that Putin is there.  Rumors are bubbling up again, especially after a comment by Pope Francis over the weekend, that it’s time for the Ukrainians to sue for peace.  Could it be that Kyiv, Washington, or perhaps others have reached out to the Turks to get the ball rolling?  //  Still, the official line in Washington is that all Americans and all American allies should fall into line to continue to support Ukraine with a blank check.  That’s something that is meeting with hard resistance both on Capitol Hill and in public opinion polls.  //  Avril Haines, the Director of National Intelligence, said in her annual report to Congress yesterday that the Gaza war could stoke a generational terrorism threat that could include a new terror threat in Europe.  It’s Haines’s job to give a worst-case scenario.  But we should pay attention to this one.  Desperate people do desperate things.  And the US ignoring the plight of the Palestinians while continuing to provide Israel the tools necessary to oppress them may come with a long-term price.  //  And two anonymous Biden Administration officials told CNN that in late 2022, the Administration believed that Russia was preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.  Well, it’s actually not that clear.  It’s that the US was “rigorously preparing for the possibility that Russia MAY use nuclear weapons.”  This was not based on anything the Russian government or military did or did not do.  It was the conclusion of a CIA analyst, and that conclusion apparently took on a life of its own.  It’s an example of how a self-described but still anonymous smartest-guy-in-the-room can influence some of the most important and high-stakes policies in government.

International affairs and security analyst Mark Sleboda.

Questions:

1. We’re in the midst of a very clear effort to drum up interest in and enthusiasm for the war in Ukraine. I mean, you can hear the bellows working. The latest is this CNN “exclusive” report that “In late 2022, the US began “preparing rigorously” for Russia potentially striking Ukraine with a nuclear weapon.” This is given the added frisson of coming via two anonymous sources - ooh, they don’t want us to know! Frankly, if my government is going to help provoke a proxy war with a nuclear armed power, I would hope there would be at least some idea of what to do in case nukes are deployed. CNN tells us there was an “unprecedented level of contingency planning” undertaken in the Biden administration. I guess that planning didn’t involve what to do if you ran out of artillery shells and couldn’t produce more, but hey, you can’t win them all. 

2. This story is interesting for a few reasons. One, we’re told that one of the reasons for this flurry of planning was that it looked in summer 2022 like Russia might be routed. This is suspect to me. Russia certainly did penetrate deep into Ukraine and then fall back - and some indeed say Moscow overreached or erred tactically and had to recover, others say that the minimal number of troops involved in this early maneuvers would indicate that this was a feint, a tactic Russia has used before. I don’t know. But I’m a little skeptical about this insistence that Russia was juuuuuuust about to lose and then magically turned things around. And two, of course, the administration is trying to convince an increasingly skeptical American public that there are very good reasons to send tens of billions more to support a losing fight, and I guess the latest reason is … we thought maybe Russia might nuke us. Is this going to be good enough? 

3. 3. The White House is still trying to make this a serious political issue for 2024 - the state of the union last week began as a war speech. Is it going to work, or have people lost interest - or seen the writing on the wall?

4. Mark, I know you’ve been consistent on the issues of peace talks and Turkey.  But here we find ourselves again.  It could be that these stories are completely unrelated, so I’ll just ask you straight out.  What are the chances that Turkish diplomacy is now the leading hope for an end to the conflict?  Is that something we should be optimistic about?  Or is it not in the cards?

5. Avril Haines, the Director of National Intelligence, is warning policymakers that the Gaza war could lead to a generation of terrorism in Europe, supported by both Hamas and Iran.  That makes linear sense to me.  Is it something that we should expect?  Is there a way to head it off?

6. We’re learning from CNN that the White House apparently really thought in December that Russia might use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.  Russia, of course, has a longstanding no-first-use policy, and there was no indication that a nuclear strike was being considered.  Two anonymous Administration officials say that a CIA analyst had drawn the conclusion, but the language contained the usual CIA caveats–could possible, may likely, etc.  What should we make of this?  Is it just bad analysis?
   
   Gaza war may stoke ‘generational’ terror threat, top intel official says - The Washington Post

   A New Terror Threat Is Emerging in Europe Linked to Iran, Gaza War - WSJ

   If Israel invades Rafah, Biden will consider conditioning military aid to Israel - POLITICO

   Exclusive: US prepared ‘rigorously’ for potential Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine in late 2022, officials say | CNN Politics
   Russia-Ukraine war: US interested in buying artillery shells from Turkey for Kyiv | Middle East Eye
   Turkey Gives Cluster Bombs to Ukraine (foreignpolicy.com)
   Documents confirm that Ukraine is importing Turkish cluster munitions - Defense One
   Ukraine claimed to be provided Turkish BMC-made personnel carriers | Daily Sabah
   Turkey Begins Construction of Second Warship for Ukraine (thedefensepost.com)
   Ukrainian forces use now Turkish Cobra II armored vehicles (armyrecognition.com)
   US in talks with Greece on buying shells for Ukraine | eKathimerini.com
   The Greek Defense Minister did not rule out the sale of “extra” artillery shells to Ukraine to the United States (topwar.ru)